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Forecasting

Improving Net Load

January 23, 2015

Renewable Portfolio Standard requirements and decreasing costs of photovoltaics (PV) are resulting in significant amounts of solar PV systems being installed in California. Current load forecasting methods often fail to address the growing uncertainty in net load (demand for power less behind-the-meter solar generation) forecasts.

Itron is excited to work with the California Energy Commission, Clean Power Research, the California ISO and utility partners Sacramento Municipal Utility District, Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric Company on a new project to help reduce net load forecast uncertainty by producing high-accuracy solar generation forecasts and linking them to net load forecasts. Project goals and objectives will be met by applying research in the California ISO (CAISO) and electric utility operations.

Clean Power Research and Itron already supply the CAISO with solar forecasts and net load forecasts separately. Under this research effort, improved forecast methodologies will be developed and implemented starting in mid-2015 with full implementation by mid-to-late 2017.

Success in this area is anticipated to result in reductions in regulation service costs of more than $10 million per year by 2020. Additionally, these improvements will lower regulation service needs by over 2 million MWh per year by 2020, avoiding the emission of up to 2.7 million tons of greenhouse gases (GHG) per year.

Read Clean Power Research’s blog post to learn more about the project. To find out more about Itron’s role in improving Net Load Forecasts please contact Dr. Frank A. Monforte at frank.monforte@itron.com.

By Dr. Frank A. Monforte

Director of Forecasting Solutions

Dr. Frank A. Monforte is Director of Forecasting Solutions at Itron, where he is an internationally recognized authority in the areas of real-time load and generation forecasting, retail portfolio forecasting, and long-term energy forecasting. Dr. Monforte’s real-time forecasting expertise includes authoring the load forecasting models used to support real-time system operations for the North American system operators, the California ISO, the New York ISO, the Midwest ISO, ERCOT, the IESO, and the Australian system operators AEMO and Western Power. Recent efforts include authoring embedded solar, solar plant, and wind farm generation forecast models used to support real-time operations at the California ISO. Dr. Monforte founded the annual ISO/TSO Forecasting Summit that brings together ISO/TSO forecasters from around the world to discuss forecasting challenges unique to their organizations. He directs the implementation of Itron’s Retail Forecasting System, including efforts for energy retailers operating in the United Kingdom, Netherlands, France, Belgium, Italy, Australia, and the U.S. These systems produce energy forecasts for retail portfolios of interval metered and non-interval metered customers. The forecast models he has developed support forecasting of power, gas and heat demand and forecasting of wind, solar, landfill gas, and mine gas generation. Dr. Monforte presides over the annual Itron European Energy Forecasting Group meeting that brings together European Energy Forecasters for an open exchange of ideas and solutions. Dr. Monforte directed the development of Itron’s Statistically Adjusted End-Use Forecasting model and supporting data. He founded the Energy Forecasting Group, which directs primary research in the area of long-run end-use forecasting. Recent efforts include designing economic indices that provide long-run forecast stability during periods of economic uncertainty. Email Frank at frank.monforte@itron.com, or click here to connect on LinkedIn.